Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 43.244333 50.938299 59.337241 69.152183 80.271149 92.440064 106.727936
2025-01-05 31.208858 41.308652 53.379735 68.719989 87.532554 109.680782 137.542653
2025-01-12 26.269564 37.923660 52.805577 72.875312 98.867423 131.000588 173.286511
2025-01-19 20.026950 31.427301 46.925922 69.004999 99.040752 137.810696 190.864353
2025-01-26 17.368399 29.202604 46.133561 71.331154 106.953479 154.485846 221.485019
2025-02-02 15.913134 28.407051 47.081209 75.915390 117.999164 175.697178 258.994455
2025-02-09 14.112920 26.747430 46.465771 78.021563 125.506206 192.302432 290.921334
2025-02-16 12.443942 25.006889 45.450493 79.301019 131.721665 207.241137 321.063239
2025-02-23 10.781461 22.993857 43.718586 79.210307 135.733263 219.059052 347.150116
2025-03-02 9.130368 20.717621 41.249408 77.632249 137.220980 227.091701 367.946614
2025-03-09 7.931026 19.081419 39.651881 77.266127 140.459635 237.740449 392.866665
2025-03-16 6.407495 16.524891 36.091926 73.190777 137.350866 238.427607 402.750661
2025-03-23 5.765484 15.801975 36.020918 75.555761 145.614577 258.126414 443.980953
2025-03-30 4.860185 14.334661 34.370268 74.986370 149.017653 270.556089 474.994876
2025-04-06 4.571005 14.233281 35.402397 79.445112 161.346742 297.909564 530.555453
2025-04-13 3.585555 12.184090 32.111384 75.287132 158.098998 299.497427 545.070321
2025-04-20 3.258687 11.759794 32.226031 77.786337 166.971906 321.632943 593.618474
2025-04-27 3.128998 11.850926 33.493722 82.708720 180.590432 352.380524 657.410471
2025-05-04 2.840180 11.414086 33.484619 84.969016 189.316902 375.071679 708.653400
2025-05-11 2.534400 10.846872 33.083009 86.341735 196.397776 395.165341 756.235947
2025-05-18 2.193784 10.072028 32.056638 86.244420 200.577693 410.280192 795.885480
2025-05-25 1.831702 9.108097 30.395989 84.551271 201.442566 419.446834 825.610316
2025-06-01 1.573683 8.427113 29.362319 84.158387 204.853544 433.302388 863.865540